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At first, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a strong stance on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "significant consequences" last August in case Putin carried on blocking peace negotiations, Trump finally enacted major penalties on the Russian biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously hindered Putin's ability to finance his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his newly presented detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, which was created by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European participation, the former president has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's plan would essentially reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality undermine that essential independence. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president persists to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the president. But, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear goal to weaken it so it no longer acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the democratic government that his increasing dictatorship denies them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in place the presently split regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would compel Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been unable to seize in more than a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defensive positions severely compromised.

This region is the location of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that represent a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to renew the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would make renewed conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Notably, the proposal imposes no similar restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people government as Nazis, the plan declares: "Any extremist ideology and actions must be rejected and banned." Apparently to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken similar accords in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a restoration of seized territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should we believe this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on external defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "strong unified defense action" should Russia resume its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the details vary from vague to alarming. The proposal would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the security presence, presumptively commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from rebuilding his weakened military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would rely on the dedication of Western powers, including the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not