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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still