Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
