Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.