Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
